Main Points:
- Bitcoin has entered May with signs of strength after rebounding from April’s lows.
- The BTC/JPY chart shows strong support at ¥10.8 million (＄75,150) and resistance around ¥13.8 million (＄96,025).
- A breakout above ¥13.5 million (＄93,937) could signal continued bullish momentum, but macroeconomic indicators and global news may impact price stability.
- Traders should watch economic data releases and equity market trends alongside technical levels.
Bitcoin in May: A Technical Setup for Growth?
Bitcoin has kicked off May with renewed bullish energy, defying its recent trend of early-month weakness. Following a sharp drop in April that saw prices dip below ¥11 million (＄76,542), Bitcoin has rebounded to test upper resistance levels just under ¥14 million (＄97,417). Investors are now asking: Is this the start of a new rally, or just another temporary uptick?
Let’s take a closer look at the BTC/JPY hourly chart as of May 1, 2025, at 7:27 AM, and explore both the technical setup and the broader context influencing crypto markets.
Chart Review: Support and Resistance Clearly Defined
The hourly chart paints a vivid picture of volatility. From the opening level of ¥12,240,795 (＄85,174), Bitcoin dropped sharply to a low of ¥10,817,149 (＄75,269)—a level that now acts as clear technical support. Buyers entered aggressively at this point, sparking a swift rebound.
From that support, BTC climbed past ¥13.5 million (＄93,937), briefly hitting a peak of ¥13,797,359 (＄96,007). This high is now acting as a resistance level, where selling pressure appears to mount. As of the latest tick, Bitcoin is trading at ¥13,538,183 (＄94,203)—near the high but showing slight hesitation.
The key technical zones to watch:
- Support: ¥10,817,149 (＄75,269)
- Resistance: ¥13,797,359 (＄96,007)
- Breakout Threshold: ~¥13,500,000 (＄93,937)
If BTC can firmly breach this resistance, especially on high volume, it could trigger another leg up. However, failure to sustain above this level may lead to a pullback toward support.
Historical May Performance: A Mixed Bag
Historically, Bitcoin has shown mixed performance in May. While some years have yielded strong gains, others have seen early-month sell-offs, especially after strong April rallies.
In 2024, for instance, Bitcoin dipped in the first half of May before recovering. Traders are cautiously optimistic that 2025 may buck this trend, particularly given the strength of the current rebound and ongoing institutional interest.
Macroeconomic Watch: No Major News—Yet
As of May 1st, there are no major economic indicators expected, which leaves room for technical patterns to dominate market behavior. However, traders should stay alert to:
- U.S. Federal Reserve commentary
- Global equity market movements (e.g., Nikkei, S&P 500)
- Currency shifts in the JPY/USD and BTC/USD pairs
- Unexpected geopolitical or financial news
Since crypto markets trade 24/7 and are often influenced by global macro developments, even seemingly unrelated events can spark volatility.
Investor Sentiment and Golden Week in Japan
Golden Week, a major holiday in Japan, is currently underway. Historically, Bitcoin has shown upward movement during long Japanese holidays, as retail traders find more time to engage with markets.
The strong rebound in BTC/JPY may also be partly attributed to retail activity combined with algorithmic traders exploiting reduced liquidity. If history repeats, May could continue to deliver steady gains—at least during the holiday period.
What Does This Mean for Traders and Investors?
For Short-Term Traders:
- Watch for a confirmed breakout above ¥13.8 million (＄96,025) for a momentum trade.
- Set stop losses near ¥13.2 million (＄91,850) to guard against sudden reversals.
- Volume confirmation will be key—breakouts without volume can be traps.
For Long-Term Investors:
- This may be a good entry point if the support zone around ¥11 million (＄76,542) holds.
- Keep a close eye on U.S. interest rate policy and inflation figures, which have been correlated with Bitcoin demand.
- Diversification into other assets (ETH, SOL, SUI) could hedge volatility.
Comparative Analysis: BTC/USD vs. BTC/JPY
The BTC/USD pair also shows a similar rebound pattern, though the strength in JPY-denominated prices suggests a relative weakening of the yen or stronger Japanese demand.
As of writing:
- BTC/USD is trading around $88,000
- BTC/JPY is at ¥13.5 million (＄93,937), implying an exchange rate around ¥153/USD
This confirms that forex fluctuations are influencing BTC/JPY charts. Investors should factor in currency risk when entering or exiting positions in yen.
Broader Market Trends and Institutional Movement
Beyond the charts, recent whale accumulation data from Glassnode shows that long-term holders are adding to their Bitcoin positions. Meanwhile, U.S. ETF inflows have remained steady, with BlackRock and Fidelity both reporting consistent interest in their BTC-related products.
The CME futures market also indicates a positive funding rate, which typically suggests bullish sentiment among leveraged traders. Combined with lower exchange balances, this sets a potentially bullish backdrop for May.
May Starts Strong, But Caution Still Needed
Bitcoin’s performance in the first hours of May 2025 points to resilience and possible continuation of the uptrend. However, price action alone isn’t enough. Investors should remain vigilant for external catalysts that could alter sentiment quickly.
With key resistance around ¥13.8 million (＄96,025) and strong support below ¥11 million (＄76,542), the market is positioned for a breakout—but also at risk of renewed volatility. Combining technical signals with macro awareness is the best strategy in this dynamic crypto landscape.
