Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin traded between ¥13.2 M (＄91,758) and ¥16.1 M (＄111,917) in early to mid-May, testing both support and resistance levels.
- Macroeconomic factors, including U.S. interest-rate expectations, weighed on risk assets and contributed to the early-month dip.
- Institutional demand remained robust, with ETF inflows exceeding $5 billion in late April and early May.
- Geopolitical events—from U.S.–China dynamics to strategic reserve initiatives—have bolstered long-term bullish sentiment.
- The crucial ¥14.4 M (＄100,100) support and ¥16.1 M (＄111,917) resistance levels will likely dictate Bitcoin’s direction into June.
Early May Volatility and Support Test
Bitcoin opened May 2025 at ¥15,103,051 (＄104,987) and saw a swift pullback to ¥13,248,605 (＄92,096) on May 6, breaking below its intermediate support at ¥14.4 M (＄100,100). This early-month slump coincided with rising U.S. Treasury yields, as investors anticipated further Fed tightening after doves were sidelined in the April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. Higher real yields globally tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, prompting a sell-off in both equities and digital assets.
Despite the breach, Bitcoin staged a rapid recovery above the ¥14.4 M (＄100,100) support. This bounce was underpinned by positive on-chain fundamentals—namely, declining exchange balances—and continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw over $5.5 billion of net new capital in the three weeks through early May. Buyers viewed the ¥14.4 M (＄100,100) level—around $100,000 USD—as an attractive entry point, illustrating that institutional appetite remained undiminished despite broader risk-off conditions.
Mid-May Resistance Challenge
By mid-May, Bitcoin’s uptrend resumed, propelling prices toward the ¥16.1 M (＄111,917) resistance line. On May 21, Bitcoin peaked at $109,760 (approximately ¥16.13 M), eclipsing its January highs on the back of renewed bullishness in equity markets and optimism around global trade developments. This high-water mark demonstrated sustained demand from both retail and institutional participants.
Key drivers behind the mid-month rally included:
- ETF and Corporate Buying: MicroStrategy added more Bitcoin to its treasury, while Trump Media announced plans to allocate $2.5 billion to the asset, further affirming corporate adoption.
- Regulatory Clarity: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s acceptance of several spot Bitcoin ETFs provided investors with regulated avenues for exposure, reducing perceived tails risks.
- Technological Momentum: Progress on Layer 2 solutions, such as the Lightning Network, and announcements of major Web3 investments from tech giants boosted confidence in Bitcoin’s scalability and long-term utility.
However, profit-taking around ¥16.1 M (＄111,917) quickly ensued, causing Bitcoin to retract back into a ¥14.4 M (＄100,100)–¥16.1 M (＄111,917) trading range. The inability to sustain a breakout suggested that, despite institutional backing, buyers lacked sufficient conviction or were awaiting clearer macro cues before resuming accumulation.
Late May Rebound and Equilibrium
Entering the final week of May, Bitcoin found support near ¥15.5 M (＄107,746) and advanced to ¥15,730,756 (＄109,350) on May 27. Trading volumes remained balanced, indicating indecision among participants as they assessed incoming news flows. Notably, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s remarks at a Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas—urging the use of Bitcoin to counter China’s digital-asset ambitions—added a fresh geopolitical layer to bullish narratives.
Moreover, the passage of strategic reserve legislation in several jurisdictions (notably the U.S. executive order establishing a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” in March 2025) has lent further legitimacy to Bitcoin as a store-of-value asset. Although markets have yet to fully price in these formal reserve holdings, the development points to a potential shift whereby state actors could become key long-term buyers.
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Drivers
U.S. Monetary Policy
The Fed’s policy pivot remains pivotal. Hawkish commentary from Fed officials can trigger near-term pullbacks, whereas any dovish tilt—if inflation cools—could reignite risk asset rallies, including Bitcoin.
Institutional Adoption
ETF inflows and corporate treasury allocations have created structural demand. With spot Bitcoin ETFs now a fixture, traditional asset managers can deploy capital without the custody headaches that once deterred them.
Geopolitical Tensions
The U.S.–China digital-asset competition, highlighted by policy proposals on both sides, underscores Bitcoin’s strategic value. Maintaining a “reserve currency” narrative may inspire more sovereigns to accumulate Bitcoin, further tightening supply on exchanges.
Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
| Level | JPY Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | ¥16,100,000 (＄111,917) | May highs; profit-taking zone |
| Support | ¥14,400,000 (＄100,100) | Early-May low; institutional bids |
| Near-term Pivot | ¥15,500,000 (＄107,746) –¥15,800,000 (＄109,832) | Current equilibrium range |
A decisive break above ¥16.1 M (＄111,917) with sustained volume could open the path toward new all-time highs, potentially near ¥18 M (≈ $120,000). Conversely, a drop below ¥14.4 M (＄100,100) might trigger a deeper correction toward ¥13 M (＄90,368) or lower, especially if macro headwinds intensify.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s May performance underscores its dual nature: a highly liquid, institutionally accessible asset that remains sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical ebbs and flows. The ¥14.4 M (＄100,100) support and ¥16.1 M (＄111,917) resistance lines are the battlegrounds where the next major move will be decided. Investors should monitor U.S. monetary policy signals, ETF flow reports, and global regulatory developments closely. A break in either direction may set the tone for Bitcoin’s summer trajectory—either catalyzing a fresh leg higher or inviting profit-taking and consolidation.
