Main Points:
- A temporary US–China tariff reduction ignited a brief Bitcoin rally, breaching ¥11.5 million (＄77,841) before profit-taking returned prices to prior levels.
- Technical charts highlight key support at ¥14 million (＄94,763) and resistance near ¥15.5 million (＄104,916) on BTC/JPY 30-minute intervals.
- Major corporate holders like MicroStrategy added over 13,000 BTC to their treasuries, underscoring institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
- Bitcoin mining firms backed by high-profile investors prepare Nasdaq listings, signaling growing capital inflows into mining operations.
- Altcoins (ETH, XRP) and DeFi tokens have mirrored Bitcoin’s move, with whale accumulation indicating broader market participation.
- Macro factors—easing trade tensions, fading safe-haven appeal of gold—and upcoming monetary policy decisions set the stage for continued volatility.
US–China Trade Truce Sparks Crypto Rally
On May 12, 2025, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice President He Lifeng announced a 90-day tariff rollback: U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will drop from 145 percent to 30 percent, while China’s duties on U.S. goods will fall from 125 percent to 10 percent. This de-escalation sent risk assets higher—S&P 500 futures jumped 2.8 percent—and Bitcoin briefly surged above ¥15.5 million (approx. $105,700) before retreating to around ¥15.26 million (＄103,291), roughly flat from the prior close.
While the tariff news removed a key geopolitical overhang, traders swiftly booked profits, reflecting caution over the truce’s temporary nature and unknown details of its full implementation. The broad market reaction underscores Bitcoin’s evolving role: no longer strictly a hedge against currency wars, it now factors in both macro and micro drivers, from institutional flows to on-chain developments.
Technical Analysis of BTC/JPY
A 30-minute BTC/JPY chart shows Bitcoin initiating at ¥12.25 million (＄82,917), dipping to a low of ¥12.02 million (＄81,360)—where buyers defended the level—before mounting a rally that challenged the prior ¥14 million (＄94,763) resistance line. Once that barrier gave way, momentum accelerated, spiking to a high of ¥15.26 million (＄103,291).
The ¥14 million (＄94,763) zone, having acted as resistance for multiple attempts, now potentially flips to support. If that holds, the next upside target lies at the January high near ¥16 million (＄108,300). Conversely, failure below ¥14 million (＄94,763) could see retests of the ¥13 million (＄81,225) area, corresponding with the mid-April swing low. Traders should also watch for “bull flag” patterns on higher time frames—weekly charts show a textbook bull flag since the January peak near ¥16.5 million (＄111,684), projecting a longer-term target toward ¥21 million (＄142,144) if confirmed.
Institutional Accumulation and Corporate Treasury Purchases
Corporate treasuries continue to anchor Bitcoin’s fundamental demand. MicroStrategy announced the purchase of 13,390 BTC (~$1.34 billion), lifting its total holdings to 568,840 BTC (worth roughly $59 billion). This move, financed through equity and debt offerings, represents an ongoing corporate strategy to hedge against inflation and dollar debasement. Analyst Mark Palmer noted the company’s position yields a 15.5 percent bitcoin‐based return relative to share performance YTD.
Similarly, BTC Inc. merged Nakamoto Holdings with KindlyMD to raise $710 million for further Bitcoin acquisitions, while Coinbase’s impending S&P 500 inclusion has attracted passive funds, boosting its stock by 7 percent in after-hours trading. These developments illustrate the financial sector’s integration of crypto assets, as traditional investors seek regulated exposure to digital stores of value.
Mining Industry Developments and Public Listings
The mining sector is also capturing fresh investment. “American Bitcoin,” backed by Eric and Donald Trump Jr., announced plans to list on Nasdaq via a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining, establishing a platform for large-scale BTC accumulation—sparking a 173 percent rally in Gryphon shares on the news. Hedge fund partner Hut 8 will retain operational control, offering infrastructure through the new “ABTC” vehicle.
Meanwhile, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy’s parent) funded its latest 13,390 BTC purchase at $99,856 per coin, reinforcing mining and treasury purchasing as dual pillars of corporate crypto strategies. Expansion of publicly traded mining equities provides an alternative on-ramp for investors seeking leverage to Bitcoin’s price without direct custody, broadening market depth and liquidity.
Broader Crypto Market Trends: Altcoins and DeFi Advances
Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) have not trailed Bitcoin’s rally. ETH climbed to $2,620 on a weekly bull-flag breakout, while XRP broke out of a falling wedge, with whale wallets adding heavily — targeting $3,515 and $3.48, respectively. Large-scale holders are rotating into mid-cap DeFi tokens like Uniswap (UNI) and Aave (AAVE), anticipating growth in decentralized lending as on-chain activity rebounds from March lows.
NFT marketplaces and real-world asset tokenization (RWA) are emerging narratives: platforms like Fractional.art and Centrifuge are initiating pilots for tokenized real estate and commodities, drawing institutional partners and regulatory scrutiny in tandem. Investors should monitor smart-contract upgrade proposals on Ethereum’s Beacon Chain and cross-chain bridges’ security audits, as these factors materially affect network health and token valuations.
Macro Factors: Risk-On Sentiment and Gold Outperformance
Easing trade tensions have diminished gold’s safe-haven lure: the BTC-to-gold ratio broke out of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, signaling potential further Bitcoin dominance in risk-on rallies. With U.S. CPI data and Fed minutes due later this week, markets brace for volatility: a hawkish Fed could cap BTC gains, while a dovish stance may propel new all-time highs.
Foreign exchange dynamics also play a role. A weakening yen against the dollar elevates BTC/JPY levels, providing domestic buyers additional tailwinds even if USD-denominated BTC trades flat. Meanwhile, Chinese on-chain data shows spot trading volumes climbing as local exchanges adjust to revised commodity duties. These cross-sectional signals underscore Bitcoin’s multifaceted drivers—straddling FX, equities, commodities, and on-chain metrics.
What Investors Should Watch
- Support/Resistance: Watch ¥14 million (＄94,763) as near-term support; a break below could retrace toward ¥13 million (＄81,225). Resistance lies at January highs around ¥16 million (＄108,300).
- Institutional Flows: Monitor SEC filings and corporate treasury announcements for large BTC purchases that drive fundamental demand.
- Mining Stocks: Track Nasdaq-listed mining equities (Hut 8, Bitfarms) as leveraged proxies for Bitcoin’s price moves.
- Altcoin Sentiment: Whale accumulation on ETH and XRP wallets; DeFi TVL (total value locked) trends on-chain for broader market health.
- Macro Calendar: U.S. CPI, Fed minutes, and PBOC policy statements may trigger cross-asset volatility, influencing Bitcoin’s risk premium.
Conclusion
Despite fleeting profit-taking following the US–China tariff truce, Bitcoin’s brief ascent past ¥15.5 million (＄104,916) underscores its resilience and deepening role in global finance. Technical breakouts, corporate treasury acquisitions, and mining sector expansions collectively paint a bullish backdrop. Concurrently, altcoins and DeFi tokens benefit from renewed risk appetite, while macro catalysts—from central bank policy to FX movements—continue to shape short-term swings. Investors attuned to support and resistance levels, institutional flow data, and evolving on-chain fundamentals will be best positioned to navigate Bitcoin’s next chapter as it strives toward new milestones.
