Main Points
- In early June 2025, Bitcoin traded within a tight range near ¥14,400,000–¥16,100,000 (approximately $103,000–$117,000), reflecting a tug-of-war between macroeconomic uncertainty and institutional demand.
- In early May, BTC dipped to ¥13,248,605 (≈$95,000) amid renewed risk-off sentiment tied to U.S. tightening concerns, but rebounded above the ¥14.4M (≈$103,000) support with institutional inflows and ETF optimism.
- By mid-May, Bitcoin briefly pierced the ¥16.1M (≈$117,000) resistance, driven by positive regulatory developments and major buy signals, before profit-taking caused a retreat below that level.
- From late May into early June, BTC oscillated between ¥14.4M and ¥16.1M ($103K–$117K) as traders awaited Fed policy cues, global economic releases, and G7/G20 regulatory clarity.
- On June 4, 2025, Bitcoin consolidated near $105,500, facing resistance around $106,000–$106,500 and support near $103,000, signaling impending volatility and underscoring critical technical levels.
1. Introduction
Bitcoin’s price action from early May through early June 2025 has been characterized by rapid swings between ¥13,248,605 (approximately $95,000) and a peak near ¥16,129,872 ($117,000). This period—what many dubbed the “June Bitcoin Turmoil”—has been defined by intense battles between large holders (“whales”) near the critical resistance of ¥16.1 million ($117K) and the supportive base of ¥14.4 million ($103K). Market participants have grappled with mixed macroeconomic signals, including U.S. Federal Reserve commentary on interest rates, softer manufacturing data, and shifting risk trends after a period of elevated institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. At the same time, global regulators have signaled evolving stances on crypto oversight, adding a further layer of complexity. This article will chronicle those price swings, dissect the underlying drivers, and highlight recent developments as of June 4, 2025, for readers seeking new crypto assets, alternative income sources, and pragmatic blockchain applications.
2. Early May: Soft Start and Bottom-Finding
2.1 Initial Slide to ¥13,248,605 (~$95K)
On May 2, 2025, Bitcoin opened trading at ¥15,103,051 (≈$109,000). Within the first week, bearish sentiment intensified: global equities softened amid renewed apprehension about U.S. monetary tightening, and BTC was swept lower to a low of ¥13,248,605 (≈$95,000) by May 6. This decline reflected two main factors:
- U.S. Tightening Fears
Market participants were increasingly concerned that stronger-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings and robust employment data would force the Federal Reserve to maintain or accelerate interest rates. Indeed, higher yields on U.S. Treasuries during that week pointed to a hawkish Fed bias, making risk assets like Bitcoin susceptible to broad-based sell-offs. - Altcoin and DeFi Weakness
Several leading altcoins and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols reported security vulnerabilities that week, rattling confidence across the entire digital asset space. Hack disclosures on smaller DeFi platforms fed into broader uncertainty, prompting a cascade of liquidations that weighed on Bitcoin as the market bellwether.
2.2 Institutional and ETF-Driven Rebound
Following that dip, BTC found crucial support at ¥14,400,000 (≈$103,000). A confluence of factors fueled a rebound:
- Large-Scale Stake Purchases
On May 7, a prominent institutional buyer—rumored to be a hedge fund allocating to Bitcoin in its treasury—announced additional spot crypto purchases. Public filings later confirmed that several U.S.-based asset managers increased their Bitcoin allocations, signaling renewed confidence in long-term value. - Spot ETF Flows Stabilize
Despite volatility earlier in 2025, spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to attract fresh capital. Preliminary data released May 8 showed net inflows of roughly $250 million into major U.S. spot BTC ETFs over the preceding week, providing a floor beneath BTC prices.
Together, these factors underpinned a rally back above ¥14.4M, reinforcing the psychological and technical significance of that support level. Market commentary throughout that week noted that if BTC could hold above ¥14.4M, further upside toward ¥15.6M ($113K) was probable.
3. Mid-May: Resistance Challenge and Temporary Breakout
3.1 Approach to ¥16,100,000 (~$117K)
Between May 10 and May 20, Bitcoin’s trajectory turned decisively bullish. Climbing steadily from the ¥14.4M base, BTC tested resistance at ¥16,100,000 (≈$117K) around May 21. That run was spurred by:
- Positive Regulatory Signals
At various G7 and G20 forums during mid-May, speakers from several major economies—including Japan and Germany—publicly discussed accelerating blockchain pilot programs and exploring digital asset frameworks. The market interpreted these comments as tacit approval for broader crypto adoption, underpinning bullish sentiment. - Advancements in On-Chain Utility
May 19 saw an announcement from a leading payment processor that it was integrating Bitcoin payments for cross-border remittances across East Asia. That update bolstered the narrative that Bitcoin’s real-world use cases were expanding beyond speculation, further supporting the uptrend. - Anticipation of the Next Halving Cycle
Although the next Bitcoin halving was still over a year out, several on-chain analysts highlighted declining miner selling pressure as pre-halving behavior. Reports indicated that miners reduced spot BTC liquidations by nearly 30 percent year-over-year, tightening market supply and fueling buy-side pressure.
3.2 Touching ¥16,129,872 and Swift Retraction
On May 22, Bitcoin spiked to a high of ¥16,129,872 (≈$117,500). For several hours, spot trading on Japanese exchanges like Bitbank and bitFlyer saw orderbooks light up, with bids absorbed rapidly at that level. However, profit-taking mounted quickly:
- Whale Profit-Taking
Blockchain data from Glassnode suggested that wallets holding over 10,000 BTC (roughly $1 billion at that time) began offloading significant chunks between ¥16.1M–¥16.2M, densifying sell pressure. - Resistance Confirmation
Multiple technical analysts noted that ¥16.1M had served as stiff resistance since late April 2025. Despite the brief breakout, a lack of sustained volume above that threshold indicated insufficient conviction. By May 23, BTC had retreated below ¥16.1M, settling near the mid-range around ¥15.5M ($113K).
After the peak, BTC spent several days consolidating between ¥15.2M (≈$111K) and ¥16.1M ($117K), with thinner volumes reflective of indecision. Traders referred to this zone as the “whale battleground,” where large holders tried to defend or breach key thresholds.
4. Late May to Early June: Range-Bound Trading and Macro Drivers
4.1 Oscillation between ¥14.4M and ¥16.1M
From roughly May 25 through June 2, Bitcoin’s price hovered between the critical support of ¥14,400,000 (≈$103,000) and resistance at ¥16,100,000 ($117,000). During this week, on-chain activity from major wallets declined slightly (daily active addresses fell 12 percent week-over-week), suggesting that traders were awaiting fresh catalysts.
Key macroeconomic and geopolitical considerations included:
- U.S. Federal Reserve Comments
On May 27, Fed Governor Laura Stevens hinted at “patience” regarding further rate hikes, which briefly propelled broader risk appetite. Accordingly, Bitcoin spiked to ¥15,800,000 ($115K) on May 28, only to pull back as the markets digested nuanced language about potential “higher-for-longer” rates . - Global Economic Releases
Japan’s Ministry of Finance reported on May 30 that the yen was nearing a multi-year low versus the dollar—JPY/USD trading around 141.2—which amplified BTC’s JPY valuations by default, even as USD prices were flat. Simultaneously, U.S. ISM manufacturing data released May 3 showed a further contraction, impacting liquidity flows into risk assets. - Ongoing Regulatory Watch
Between May 29–31, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Digital Asset Working Group—led by Commissioner Hester Peirce—hosted roundtables to revisit token classification, fuelling speculation that approval for additional spot Ether ETFs might be imminent, which historically has buoyed Bitcoin. This regulatory ambivalence kept BTC’s range tight.
4.2 Technical Implications of Range Bound Trading
During the range, daily trading volumes averaged around 450,000 BTC across major exchanges—down roughly 8 percent from mid-May highs, indicating sideways activity. Volume shrinkage near both ¥14.4M and ¥16.1M suggested exhaustion of immediate supply/demand at those levels, making them key inflection points:
- Support at ¥14,400,000 ($103K)
Each test of ¥14.4M in late May saw bids accumulate rapidly. Market commentators posited that if BTC held above that support for a decisive daily close, it could attract a renewed wave of buyers targeting a retest of ¥16.1M. - Resistance at ¥16,100,000 ($117K)
Conversely, any rally above ¥16.1M required higher conviction. Analysts observed that average sell orders stacked above ¥16.1M outnumbered bids by a 3:1 ratio, implying that a breakout would demand significant fresh money inflows.
This tug-of-war, in the context of soft macro signals, set the stage for a nervous June onset. Traders awaited nonfarm payrolls due June 6 in the U.S., as well as Japan’s Q1 GDP figure on June 10. A decisive move in either direction would likely hinge on those releases.
5. Recent Trends and Technical Outlook (June 3–4, 2025)
5.1 Bitcoin Near $105,500, Resistance Around $106,000
On June 3, Bitcoin traded around $105,000–$105,600 (¥14.8M–¥14.9M), up roughly 2.1 percent on the day, as DeFi tokens like Ether and Solana also advanced (Ether +3.3 percent, Solana +6.1 percent). That movement followed a weekend where BTC peaked near $106,000 but failed to clear the $106.5K–$108K supply zone. Key observations:
- Resistance at $106,000–$106,500
CryptoRank data on June 4 showed Bitcoin repeatedly rejected near $106.5K, with selling pressure mounting between $106K and $106.5K. Short-term traders noted a lower-high pattern on 4-hour charts, implying that sellers remained active at those levels. - Support at $103,000–$103,500
Daily chart analysis reveals a cluster of bids forming around $103,000 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement of May gains). This dynamic support held on June 3 when BTC dipped to $103,500, confirming that buyers were prepared to defend below $104K.
5.2 Macro Drivers on June 4
As the Asian session opened on June 4 (Japan time), USD/JPY climbed to 141.8, meaning every $1 movement in Bitcoin’s USD price caused a larger JPY swing. Meanwhile, U.S. Fed Chair Janet Yellen prepared to testify before Congress on June 5, and markets awaited that testimony for clues on the timing of potential rate pivots. Stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data could push BTC downward if it reinforced hawkish Fed expectations.
5.3 Technical Indicators Suggest Volatility Ahead
Short-term momentum indicators show mixed signals:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The daily RSI hovered near 57—below overbought territory but above neutral 50—suggesting modest bullish bias but room for pullbacks. - Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)
BTC’s 20-EMA ($105,160) and 50-EMA ($105,940) formed a tight cluster. That zone has acted as a dynamic ceiling over the past three sessions, indicating that a sustained move above $106K would be required to confirm a new uptrend. - On-Chain Whale Activity
Data from CryptoQuant on June 4 revealed that addresses holding over 1,500 BTC decreased net short exposures by 2 percent, hinting that whales were consolidating rather than adding fresh shorts—often a precursor to volatile moves when long-liquidation triggers build up.
Traders are closely watching open interest on BTC perpetual futures. As of June 3, total open interest across major CME, Binance, and OKX futures stood at $32 billion—near multi-month lows—indicating that fewer leveraged positions are in play, which can lead to larger price swings when positions unwind.
6. Conclusion
From early May’s swift plunge to ¥13,248,605 (≈$95,000) through mid-May’s brief breakout above ¥16,100,000 (≈$117,000), and into early June’s $103K–$117K range marriage, Bitcoin’s price action has underscored the delicate interplay between macroeconomic signals, institutional flows, and technical thresholds. The “whale battles” at ¥16.1M and ¥14.4M defined a critical month, while dovish-leaning Fed comments and spot ETF inflows provided intermittent relief. As of June 4, 2025, BTC’s consolidation near $105,500—with resistance clustered at $106,000–$106,500 and support near $103,000—points to potential volatility ahead. Key upcoming catalysts include U.S. nonfarm payrolls (June 6), Japan’s Q1 GDP (June 10), and Fed Chair testimony (June 5). For readers seeking new crypto assets or income-generating opportunities, this juncture suggests prudence: waiting for a confirmed break of $106,500 could offer a clearer entry, while a decisive drop below $103,000 might open lower support targets near $100,000. Ultimately, the convergence of macro data, regulatory clarity, and on-chain supply dynamics will determine whether Bitcoin reclaims a bullish trajectory or retreats to value-seeking zones.
