Main Points:
- April saw a steady climb from April 6’s low of ¥10,817,149 (＄75,895) to a peak of ¥13,797,359 (＄96,805) on April 30, 2025.
- Despite the strong uptrend, Bitcoin has consolidated around ¥13.5 million (＄94,719), testing key support and resistance levels.
- Macro uncertainty—from U.S. tariffs to mixed ETF flows—has driven cautious trading, though institutional demand remains intact.
- Technical indicators suggest a continuation of the bullish trend if Bitcoin can clear the ¥14 million (＄98,227) resistance.
- Market watchers await major U.S. economic data this week (Core PCE on April 30, ISM PMI on May 1) for renewed directional cues.
1. April Price Action: From the April 6 Low to Month-End High
Bitcoin began April 2025 trading at approximately ¥10,817,149 (＄75,895)—the lowest point of the month—before entering a sustained uptrend that pushed prices as high as ¥13,797,359 (＄96,805) by 07:28 JST on April 30. This nearly ¥3 million (＄21,047) surge within a single month represents a remarkable resilience amid global macro headwinds. The most dramatic leg of this rally occurred between April 25 and April 26, when Bitcoin vaulted from below ¥12.5 million (＄87,703) to breach the psychological ¥13.5 million (＄94,719) threshold in just a few hours.
This month’s performance stands out for two reasons: first, the strength shown in bouncing back from mid-April lows; and second, the fact that Bitcoin’s price climbed side-by-side with weakness in both equities and the U.S. dollar—a divergence from its historic correlation with “risk-on” assets. Markets have questioned whether Bitcoin is evolving into a genuine safe-haven asset, though most experts remain cautious.
2. Key Technical Levels and Consolidation Phase
After tagging its high at ¥13,797,359 (＄96,805), Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase. Candlestick patterns on the 1-hour chart show tight price action between roughly ¥13.5 million (＄94,719) (acting as support) and ¥14 million (＄98,227) (acting as resistance).
- Support at ¥13.5 million (＄94,719): Psychological buyers have stepped in near this level, preventing significant pullbacks.
- Resistance at ¥14 million (＄98,227): A decisive close above this barrier is needed to unlock the next leg higher.
- Trendline Support: A rising trendline from the April 6 low provides dynamic support, currently intersecting near ¥13.4 million (＄94,719).
Technical analysts note that as long as Bitcoin remains above the trendline and ¥13.5 million (＄94,719), the uptrend remains intact. However, failure to clear ¥14 million (＄98,227) within the next 24–48 hours could trigger a deeper retracement to trendline support or even back toward ¥13 million (＄91,211).
3. Institutional Flows and ETF Developments
Institutional interest has underpinned April’s rally. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF saw significant inflows—nearly US $1 billion on April 30—highlighting robust demand from large-scale investors. Conversely, some funds like Invesco’s ETF recorded zero net flows on the same day, signaling a “wait-and-see” stance among other institutions.
The mixed flow data implies two things:
- Selective Accumulation: Leading institutions continue to view Bitcoin as a strategic asset amid macro uncertainty.
- Hesitant Capital: Some investors are treading cautiously, possibly awaiting further regulatory clarity or more favorable entry points.
These dynamics often lead to range-bound price action until a clear catalyst—such as a regulatory announcement or macroeconomic surprise—breaks the impasse.
4. Macro Factors: Tariffs, Economic Data, and Fed Policy
The backdrop of U.S.–China tariff negotiations and geopolitical tariff threats has injected volatility into global markets. While equities and the dollar have struggled under tariff fears, Bitcoin has held up comparatively well—a rare divergence hinting at its potential safe-haven appeal.
This week’s U.S. economic calendar is heavy:
- April 30: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
- May 1: ISM Manufacturing PMI—an early read on economic momentum.
- May 2: Nonfarm Payrolls—key indicator of labor market health.
Traders will parse these reports for signs of a Fed pivot toward rate cuts. Soft inflation or weaker-than-expected manufacturing data could reignite buying in Bitcoin, as lower rates tend to benefit non–yield-bearing assets. Conversely, unexpected strength may cool risk appetite and reinforce consolidation.
5. On-Chain Metrics and Market Structure
On-chain indicators remain constructive: the number of active Bitcoin addresses has only dipped modestly, and long-term holder cohorts continue HODLing, supporting the floor price. Metrics such as the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price show accumulation persists below current levels, suggesting that any pullbacks could be met with renewed buying from core stakeholders.
6. Outlook: Can Bitcoin Break Free at Month-End?
With today marking the last trading day of April, momentum could hinge on how price reacts to month-end flows and the release of Core PCE data. If Bitcoin can decisively close above ¥14 million (＄98,227), technical momentum may carry it toward ¥15 million (＄105,243) in May. However, a failure to do so would likely confine price to the ¥13 million (＄91,211)–¥14 million (＄98,227) corridor until after key U.S. data prints.
Traders should watch for:
- Volatility spikes in the hours around Core PCE and Nonfarm Payrolls.
- ETF flow announcements from major issuers like Grayscale or Fidelity in early May.
- Geopolitical developments on U.S.–China trade.
Conclusion
April 2025 showcased Bitcoin’s resilience, rallying from a mid-month low of ¥10.8 million (＄75,775) to nearly ¥13.8 million (＄96,824) by month-end. The ensuing consolidation around ¥13.5 (＄94,719)–¥14 million (＄98,227) reflects both sustained institutional interest and macro-driven caution. With pivotal U.S. economic data imminent and mixed ETF flow signals at play, Bitcoin’s immediate path will depend on its ability to clear the ¥14 million (＄98,227) resistance. A successful break could set the stage for a fresh leg higher in May; failure may confine price within its current range until new catalysts emerge. As always, investors should manage risk carefully, monitor on-chain developments, and remain attuned to macroeconomic shifts that could sway sentiment.