Main Points:
- Robust Recovery: Bitcoin reclaimed ¥15 million (＄102,980) after dipping to ¥12 million (＄82,384) on April 27.
- Technical Breakout: Breached key resistance at ¥14 million (＄96,115) and psychological ¥15 million (＄102,980) level.
- FOMC Aftermath: Fed’s pause in rate hikes has eased market uncertainty and boosted risk appetite.
- Macro Tailwinds: Growing institutional interest and anticipation of the Bitcoin halving.
- Cautious Optimism: Potential consolidation near current highs, with pullback risks after sharp moves.
1. Robust Recovery from Golden Week Lows
Following the Golden Week holiday in Japan, Bitcoin staged a strong rebound, surging from an intraday low of ¥12,017,560 (＄82,504) on April 27 to close near ¥15,000,000 (＄102,980) on May 9. This represents a rapid 25% gain over less than two weeks, underscoring renewed buying interest among retail and institutional participants. The swift recovery suggests that the market viewed the shallow dip as a buying opportunity rather than the start of a deeper correction.
2. Technical Breakout and New Support Zone
A closer look at the 1‑hour chart reveals that once Bitcoin cleared the ¥14,000,000 (＄96,115) resistance—previously a ceiling multiple times between March and April—it accelerated toward ¥15,000,000 (＄102,980). The psychological barrier at ¥15,000,000 (＄102,980) was briefly tested, peaking at ¥15,151,096 (＄104,017) before mild profit‑taking ensued. Notably, the ¥14,800,000 (＄101,607) region, near the session open of ¥14,867,973 (＄102,073), has now emerged as a potential support zone. Should prices dip, buyers are likely to defend this level, reinforcing the bullish setup.
3. Influence of the FOMC Decision
On May 1, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a hold on its benchmark interest rate, keeping the federal funds rate at 5.25%–5.50%. With inflation showing signs of moderation and the U.S. banking sector stabilizing after recent stress, the Fed signaled a bias toward patient assessment rather than further hikes. This “pause” narrative reduced systemic risk fears and improved risk‑asset sentiment, benefiting cryptocurrencies which often trade in sync with technology and growth sectors.
4. Institutional Flows and ETF Developments
Beyond macro policy, institutional inflows have gained traction. Recent data indicate that Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. attracted over US $200 million in net purchases during the first week of May, marking the highest weekly inflow since their launch. Asset managers such as BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and Fidelity’s FBTC continue to draw capital, reflecting growing comfort with regulated, exchange‑traded structures. This on‑ramp has broadened investor access, laying a firmer foundation for sustained demand.
5. Halving Anticipation and Supply Shock
Market participants are turning their attention to the upcoming Bitcoin halving, expected in April 2028. Historically, halvings have triggered supply shocks—miners’ block rewards cut in half—reducing new issuance and often fueling subsequent price rallies. While nearly three years away, conversations around deflationary dynamics are already permeating the market, attracting long‑term investors seeking exposure before the next supply event.
6. Potential Consolidation and Risk Management
Given the sharp ascent from ¥12 million (＄82,384) to ¥15 million (＄102,980), short‑term consolidation is plausible. Traders should watch for pullbacks toward the newly established support at ¥14.8 million (＄101,607) or even the former resistance at ¥14 million (＄96,115). Key indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart are edging into overbought territory, signaling the potential for a pause or corrective leg. Risk‑averse investors may consider scaling in gradually, using dips as opportunities to accumulate rather than chasing the top.
7. External Factors to Monitor
While current macro and technical factors favor continuation, external variables could alter the trajectory:
- Geopolitical Tensions: Escalation in international conflicts can prompt risk‑off flows, impacting Bitcoin.
- Regulatory Shifts: New cryptocurrency regulations in major markets like the U.S., EU, or Japan may affect liquidity and investor confidence.
- On‑chain Metrics: Metrics such as exchange netflows, miner selling pressure, and whale accumulation should be tracked for signs of changing supply‑demand dynamics.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recovery to nearly ¥15 million (＄102,980) following Golden Week and the FOMC pause suggests that the market is gearing up for a potential summer rally. Technical breakouts above historical resistances, combined with institutional ETF inflows and the long‑term narrative of the next halving, provide a constructive backdrop. Nevertheless, investors should remain vigilant for short‑term consolidation and external catalysts that could trigger volatility. Overall, the current confluence of supportive factors makes this an opportune moment for those seeking new crypto assets and diversified revenue streams, while emphasizing prudent risk management.
