Main Points:
- Support Breach: Bitcoin has broken below its support level, signaling the start of a downtrend as the new fiscal year begins.
- High Volatility: The 1-hour chart reveals significant volatility, with price swings between roughly 11.2 million yen (＄75,818) (support) and 15 million yen (＄101,556) (resistance).
- Recent Price Movement: After an initial rebound from the starting price of 12,684,746 yen (＄85,881) to a high of 13,378,048 yen (＄90,575), Bitcoin fell to a low near 11,284,730 yen (＄76,402), and most recently is at 12,392,674 yen (＄83,904).
- Short-Term Outlook: A key short-term support level is around 12,390,641 yen (＄83,890). If Bitcoin falls below this level, further declines may accelerate. Long-term trends need further observation via daily and weekly charts.
1. Is a New Fiscal Downtrend Beginning?
Bitcoin’s price appears to have entered a downward phase as the new fiscal year begins. After a brief period of buying, the market seems to have run out of fresh inflows, and Bitcoin has now broken its support level, signaling that a downtrend may be underway. Investors are advised to be cautious of potential sharp declines.
2. 1-Hour Chart Analysis: Recent Bitcoin Dynamics
As of 7:28 AM on April 3, the 1-hour BTC/JPY chart shows that Bitcoin initially fell from its starting price of 12,684,746 yen (＄85,881), reached a low of 11,284,730 yen (＄76,402), then rebounded to a high of 13,378,048 yen (＄90,575), only to fall again. Recently, the price touched an intraday low of approximately 12,390,641 yen (＄83,890), rebounding slightly to settle at 12,392,674 yen (＄83,904). The wide range between the high and low indicates that volatility remains high.
3. Price Overview
- Opening Price: 12,684,746 yen (＄85,881)
- High Price: 13,378,048 yen (＄90,575)
- Low Price: 11,284,730 yen (＄76,402)
- Recent Price: 12,392,674 yen (＄83,904)
The current price action suggests that Bitcoin’s recovery is fragile, with the support level around 12,390,641 yen (＄83,890) acting as a short-term floor. Should the price drop below this level, further downward momentum may ensue.
4. Technical Analysis
Key technical levels on the chart are:
- Support Level: Approximately 11,200,000 yen (＄75,818)
- Resistance Level: Approximately 15,000,000 yen (＄101,556)
Although Bitcoin has broken well below the 15,000,000 yen (＄101,556) resistance level, the recent rebound off the lower levels indicates that buying pressure remains. However, until a decisive breakthrough above the resistance level occurs, the market may continue to display volatility. The 1-hour chart suggests that if the short-term support near 12,390,641 yen (＄83,890) fails to hold, further declines are likely.
5. Future Outlook
Short-term analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s upward trend might persist if it holds above the current support. However, the market remains uncertain due to high volatility and potential external factors such as economic data or policy events. For a clearer picture of the longer-term trend, investors should also consult daily and weekly charts. If the current support level is breached, further downwards pressure could accelerate, marking the true beginning of a downtrend in the new fiscal year.
6. Conclusion
Bitcoin’s current price action, with a recent level of 12,392,674 yen (＄83,904) after experiencing significant volatility, raises concerns about the sustainability of its rebound as the new fiscal year begins. While a short-term recovery is in play, the breach of support levels suggests that the market may be entering a downward phase. Investors should closely monitor the critical support at 12,390,641 yen (＄83,890), as any break below could trigger further declines. In these uncertain times, both short-term and long-term technical analyses are essential for making informed investment decisions.
